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The "Re-Energizing" Sino-US Competition: The Implications of the US's Planned 100% Tariffs and Software Export Controls on China

Published on October 11, 2025

On October 11, 2025, former US President Trump announced that, in response to China's recent large-scale export controls, the United States would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and implement export controls on all "critical software" starting November 1. If implemented, this move would undoubtedly precipitate a new, deeper phase of confrontation in Sino-US trade friction. Below, we analyze the background, risks, and potential evolution of this move from multiple perspectives.

Background and Triggers

  1. China's Expanded Export Controls

Prior to Trump's announcement, China announced stricter export controls on key elements, including rare earth materials, even requiring exporters to obtain special licenses. This was seen as a significant blow to the global supply chain, particularly the high-tech industry. Trump's side characterized this as "Chinese coercion against the global industrial chain."

Multiple media outlets have pointed out that this US move was a countermeasure to China's export controls. ([Reuters][1])

  1. Accumulation of past trade frictions During Trump's second term, he has repeatedly used tariffs as a foreign policy tool, including against China and other countries. ([Wikipedia][2]) The 100% tariff increase this time is a superposition of previous tariffs - Trump clearly stated in the announcement that the 100% tariff is imposed "on top of existing tariffs." ([CBS News][3])

  2. Intensified geopolitical and technological competition The competition between China and the United States in areas such as semiconductors, rare earths, artificial intelligence, and 5G/6G has become increasingly fierce. Using export controls and tariffs as weapons is, on the one hand, to curb each other's breakthroughs in high-end technology, and on the other hand, to compete for the right to speak in the international supply chain. In this context, trade sanctions have gradually been given more geopolitical meaning.

Risks and Challenges

  1. Risk of Global Supply Chain Disruption Imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods would double the cost of Chinese-made goods entering the US, significantly disrupting US companies' procurement of raw materials, importing parts, and assembling complete devices. Many US companies are highly dependent on the Chinese supply chain, which could lead to supply bottlenecks and increased costs, which could ultimately be passed on to consumers.

In the technology sector, software export controls are more likely to prevent some key software or technologies from entering the Chinese market, hindering US companies' market and business expansion in China.

  1. Inflation and Economic Growth Pressure Extreme tariff policies are often accompanied by rising inflationary pressures—the increased cost of imported raw materials and intermediate goods may be passed on to final products. For the US, further increased import costs amidst global economic volatility could dampen consumption and investment.

Export controls could also limit US technology companies' revenue streams from China, increasing market risks.

  1. China's Countermeasures and Diplomatic Costs China is likely to take retaliatory measures against US goods, such as imposing tariffs, restricting US companies' business in China, and issuing a "risk list" or export control list. As a result, the Sino-US trade confrontation may evolve into an all-round competition. In addition, at the level of international public opinion and rules, the unilateral imposition of tariffs and export controls by the United States may be challenged by the World Trade Organization (WTO) or other multilateral frameworks. 4. Severe market fluctuations Such sudden and major policy changes may trigger panic in the financial market. There are already signs that the US stock market fell sharply after Trump first announced the plan. ([AP News][4]) If China and the United States officially enter a cycle of retaliation, the capital market, foreign exchange market, and raw material prices may all experience severe fluctuations. ## Conclusion: Economic and trade risks and uncertainties in the new stage Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs and software export controls on China is not a simple trade punishment, but points to a deeper competition in technology and supply chains. It may mark a shift from a "tariff war" to a "technology and system war" in the field of trade between China and the United States. However, this strategy itself is extremely risky: once implemented, the chain reactions such as the reshaping of the global industrial chain, supply disruptions, price increases, capital market fluctuations, and diplomatic conflicts cannot be ignored. For China, the United States, and even the global economy, this could be a new period of uncertainty and volatility.

The coming weeks and months will be a critical window for observing whether this policy will actually be implemented, how both sides will respond, and how the international community will intervene. We must closely monitor the formal legislative and administrative processes of both countries, as well as the initial reactions from the market and industry.

(Disclaimer: This article is based on public media reports, primarily sourced from news organizations such as Reuters, AP, and CBS.)