Trump's high tariff policy progress since the beginning of 2025 and the next steps: Exclusive report
1. Core Background
Starting in January 2025, President Trump re-intensified the high tariff policy on imports from China and many other countries, relying on Section 232 (National Security) and Section 301 (Trade Investigations). He then launched the "Reciprocal Tariff" mechanism under the authority of IEEPA, with overall tariff rates far exceeding the 2021-2024 policy levels.
2. Timeline of Major Tariff Policy Developments (January to August 2)
| Date | Major Actions (President Trump/Department of Commerce/USTR) | Scope of Application | Tariff Rate/Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025.2.10-11 | Executive Order #10896/#10895 (Section 232): Eliminates all country and product exemptions, terminates General Approval Exemptions (GAEs), and raises tariffs on steel and aluminum to a uniform 25%. Includes a new batch of downstream products; establishes a "Smelted in the U.S." exemption declaration process. Effective March 12, 2025. | Steel/aluminum metals and some of their derivatives, covering 51 countries | Unified 25% (Russian derivative aluminum products account for 200%) ([The White House][1]) | The so-called "full coverage of steel and aluminum"; 283 exemptions for original products are closed; all countries and products are subject to tax |
| 2025.4.2 | Executive Order #14257 (IEEPA): Due to the Sino-US trade deficit, a new "reciprocal tariff" of 34% is added; the duty-free policy for small packages to China is closed. Effective from 0:01 a.m. Eastern Time Zone on April 5. | Goods and small-value mail parcels from China (including Hong Kong and Macau) to the United States | +34%, a total of 54% ([customslawyer.cn][2]) | Strictly cut "cheap small parcel" overseas shopping channels; the cumulative tax rate is significantly increased |
| 2025.4.8 | Executive Order #14259: (Continued adjustment) The tariff rate on China is increased to 50% (the tax rate on some products is as high as 104%). Effective from April 8th, Eastern Time. | Chinese imports | Total 84%-104% ([customslawyer.cn][2]) | Some high-tech goods are subject to more than double the tax rate |
| 2025.5.12 | Executive Order #14298: After reaching a preliminary agreement with China, the higher "reciprocal tariff rate" on some Chinese goods will be temporarily suspended, and the 10% base tariff rate will be maintained for 90 days (until August 9). This will form a "dual-track tax system." | Goods in the China-US negotiations | Remaining tariff rate 10% + temporary exemption for 90 days ([hklaw.com][3]) | Tax reform provisions are crucial to the negotiation pressure-maintaining strategy |
| 2025.5.31 | USTR issued an announcement: Extending the tariff and product exemption period in the Section 301 investigation technology transfer/intellectual property provisions from May 31 to August 31. | Chinese high-tech imports | Exemptions remain in effect until the end of August ([ustr.gov][4]) | Confronting hot issues in the Sino-US technology dispute |
| 2025.6.6 | USTR proposes public comment: Soliciting comments on the proposed adjustments to Appendix III/IV of the "301-Shipbuilding" survey, closing on July 7. | Supporting taxes related to shipping/logistics/shipbuilding products | Feedback is being collected, and the charging mechanism may be adjusted ([ustr.gov][5]) | Tariffs in new areas of 301 are gradually being implemented, facing public and business feedback |
| 2025.6.4 | Published presidential proclamation: The steel and aluminum tariff rate under the above-mentioned Section 232 will be increased from 25% to 50%, except that the UK will temporarily maintain the 25% level and will activate quotas or raise tariffs again on July 9 depending on the implementation of its trading partner agreements. | Steel/Aluminum and Derivative Metal Products | 50% Tariff ([The White House][6]) | Aimed at further ensuring the "national security" stance; increasing pressure on important allies |
| 2025.7.31 | More trading partners "reciprocal tariffs": Issued the 7th round of executive orders (unnumbered), which will be implemented on August 8 for multiple countries one by one, with tariff rates tiered according to trade deficit; Japan and South Korea 25%; Indonesia, Thailand, etc. 30-40%; Taiwan 20%, etc. | Packages from multiple countries, except China, will be taxed according to trade deficit | 25%-40% ([cn.dimerco.com][7]) | Expand the "reciprocal tariff" model to nearly 30 countries around the world, filling the gap that was previously mainly targeted at China and the United States |
| 2025.7.27-28 | At the China-US negotiation restart meeting held in Stockholm, the Swedish capital, China and the United States held consultations on the "extension" of tariffs. US Treasury Secretary Benson described the progress as "significant," but the final decision on whether to extend it remains to Trump. China and the US have reached a preliminary "90-day suspension agreement" (Geneva), which will expire on August 12. ([reuters.com][8], [wsj.com][9]) | US-China trade negotiations | The current suspension period may be further extended | If no extension agreement is reached, tariffs may be restored to triple digits within the deadline |
| 2025.8.1 | Market reaction: South Korea's Kospi fell 3.7% and Taiwan's stock market fell 1.6%; the global average tariff soared from 2.5% to 15.3%. The electronics and technology industry chain was hit the hardest. ([reuters.com][10]) | Global stock market/supply chain | Market confidence collapses in the short term | Apple expects costs to rise by more than $1.1 billion |
| 2025.8.1 | WSJ latest tracking disclosure: China-US negotiations have not yet reached an agreement. If the suspension right is terminated, tariffs on China may be restored to 80-85% or higher. Currently, partial leniency is still maintained. Trade tensions remain the main factor in the market. ([wsj.com][11]) | Future China-US negotiations | 85-100% potential tax risk |
III. Current policy landscape and background interpretation
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**The trend of increasing tariffs is obvious. ** Since March, steel and aluminum, targeted "reciprocal taxes" on China, and the unified tariff model for cross-border trade deficits have made 2025 the "toughest year for tariffs." The White House and the Department of Commerce have frequently issued executive orders, and the superposition of policies has led to a significant increase in the global average tariff rate, doubling the pressure on the market and enterprises.
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**China and the United States have adopted a “temporary suspension” ceasefire strategy. **The 90-day suspension agreement proposed in mid-May has not been reached until August 12. The Trump team is actively seeking a “tiered suspension” arrangement: some Chinese high-tech products will be allowed to exit the high-tax track and implementation will be postponed. The current balance of power is still highly dependent on the president’s authorization.
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**New areas of 301 investigations bring continued uncertainty. **In particular, the latest proposals for investigations in shipbuilding, logistics, semiconductors, etc. have entered the public consultation stage and may be transformed into new taxes or administrative charges in the fall and winter.
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**The checks and balances between the judiciary and Congress are beginning to emerge. **The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals is reviewing whether the IEEPA tariffs exceed administrative authority. The court has currently suspended some provisions. If the suspension order is extended or a long-term ban is formed, it will be a major constraint on Trump’s tax order. ([magstonelaw.net][12])
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**International countermeasures and negotiations coexist. **The EU has initiated retaliatory counter-tariff negotiations on some US goods, but has delayed the start of the negotiations; Europe has temporarily avoided retaliation on the same scale as the US. The US-China negotiations are trying to prevent the situation from getting out of control, but confidence in the global supply chain is clearly fragile.
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**Domestic politics promotes the issue of China's trade deficit, with a high degree of bipartisan consensus. **Including proposals from both the Republican and Democratic parties to cancel PNTR and strip low-value packages "de minimis" of tax exemption; if the law is passed, it will further consolidate the high tax framework. ([reuters.com][13])
IV. Possible next steps (until the end of 2025)
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**Can the 90-day suspension between China and the US be extended to the end of the year? **Whether the tariffs will continue to be suspended depends on whether Trump agrees to the phased plan proposed in the negotiations to find a balance between pressure and relaxation. If a new agreement is reached, the tariff rates of some goods may be stabilized at 20-30%; otherwise, the tariff rates will return to three digits.
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Will other countries also become "high-tax pilots"? With the implementation of the tax orders against the EU, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN at the end of July, various parties may call for negotiations similar to the China-US model. A new round of "deep agreement" negotiations with the EU may occur later this year.
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The court's ruling has a significant impact on the authority of IEEPA. If the court ultimately determines that the president lacks legislative authority to impose "reciprocal taxes," it could lead to widespread tax rate invalidation, compensation disputes, and legal action.
4.Corporate and national strategic adjustments will accelerate. American manufacturers and multinational corporations will accelerate their efforts to decouple supply chains, replacing Chinese imports with Indonesian/Vietnamese ones. Diplomatic negotiations will also gradually shift public opinion towards a "softening of tariffs."
- The China-U.S. summit may become a crucial turning point. A meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump at the end of the year (at the G20, APEC, or bilaterally) will be crucial in determining the direction of trade policy for the rest of the year, and even into 2026.
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5. Summary: Toughness is no longer limited to China.
By 2025, Trump's tariff strategy will have expanded from "Section 301" targeting China to "global coverage of steel and aluminum," introducing a "reciprocal tariff" system based on deficit levels. This shifts the trend of trade barriers from the localized protectionism of 2018 to a global, high-impact, "equal" approach.
As China-US negotiations enter a critical 90-day window, the courts' decisions on the authority of IEEPA and Congress's push for a new bill will determine whether policy will remain tough or return to a "negotiable, compromised" tariff equilibrium.
If Trump ultimately extends the suspension of the agreement and adjusts tariffs on some products as it stands, it will provide a respite for supply chains and businesses. However, if the negotiation process is interrupted, tariffs of over 100% will not only impact the global supply chain but also directly impact domestic prices and business costs.
Markets and businesses should immediately conduct categorical assessments based on product category, country of origin, and import channel type (e.g., small packages shipped by sea versus containerized cargo), and prepare for different scenarios, including a sharp escalation in tariffs or adjustments to the negotiation level.